12.01.2012 – Update on Pacquaio vs Mayweather Match

Looks like a deal is in place with a tentative fight date of May 5th, 2012 for Pacquiao vs Mayweather. Pacquiao commented from Manilla, Philippines, “We are ready. If it pushes through, once he signs the contract then I’ll sign the contract.”

Stay tuned to get tickets here on SeatGeek. Until then, take a look at the Miguel Cotto vs. Antonio Margarito matchup on December 3rd, 2011.

Here we go again. By that I mean, pretty boy Floyd Mayweather is once again moving his “beautiful mouth that never seems to stop.”

This time he wants “the biggest fight possible.” But wait, we’ve heard that before. Only since like May 2009 or something. So is this just more false hype? Or will we finally get to see Manny Pacquiao vs. Mayweather in the ring?

We know one thing for certain – Mayweather’s return to the ring has been set – May 5th, 2012 at MGM Grand in Las Vegas. The opponent is TBD. Pacquiao is set to fight Juan Marquez on November 12, 2011. Despite all sorts of speculation on the web as to whether or not this historic bout will take place, no one truly knows until the fighters have signed a deal. And over here at SeatGeek, we like to chip in with some data-based speculation of our own – in terms of ticket prices. We know it’s going to cost a fortune to get a hold of these tickets, and if this fight goes down, it will certainly end up high on our list of the most expensive tickets in SeatGeek history. But just how high are we talking about?

What To Expect

SeatGeek has been following ticket prices for a some time and while we feel pretty confident in offering our prediction for the Pacman vs Pretty Boy ticket prices, we know that this exercise will still be a bit speculative.

That said, let’s take a look at what could have been a mega-fight in UFC as one potential proxy to explore potential costs for a Mayweather vs. Pacquiao bout:

  • UFC Tickets since UFC 119 (when we started tracking UFC prices) – Avg. Ticket Prices ~$200
  • UFC 137 Tickets from the time they went on sale leading up to George St. Pierre’s (GSP) injury – Avg. Ticket Prices ~$625

This shows a premium of about 3x over average ticket prices when GSP fights versus cards without him. This anecdotally shows that huge premiums can occur for “once-in-a-decade” bouts in combat sports. Applying this multiple to the Pacquiao’s most recent fight, we can extrapolate a rough prediction of what tickets for the potential megafight could cost:

  • Pacquiao vs Mosley (5/7/11) – Avg. Ticket Prices $798.51
  • SeatGeek’s Prediction of Pacquiao vs Mayweather: Avg. Ticket Prices ~ $2495

Although this isn’t the advanced math we use with our Deal Score or Price Forecasts, we feel fairly confident that fans could expect to see average prices well over $2000 for a Mayweather vs. Pacquiao bout.

There are plenty of other factors that would significantly impact the value, including the venue and its size. But at the end of the day, one thing is clear – we all just really want this fight to happen!